Thursday, November 5, 2009

Have gold prices peaked?


Gold hit a record high above $1,095 a troy ounce, intraday, yesterday in brisk trading.

Has it peaked? I don't think so because the underlying forces causing the price to go up are here to stay for some time. In my view, the main forces acting are:

1- Dollar weakness
2- Pending inflation caused by excess government spending and lax monetary policies
3- Psychology. "Flight to safety" during uncertain times.
GG: Kindly note that China has recently replaced South Africa as the world's biggest producer of gold, and now connect that dot with my post yesterday on the fact that China holds $2 trillion of US debt, whilst their own, as % of GDP, is 9 times smaller than that of the US, standing at a very healthy 11%, and you start getting the picture. Add Russia' gold, oil and gas (Russia's external debt is only 15% of GDP) and the future picture is complete which leads me to believe that Einstein was smoking pot when he thought that he didn't know how WWIII would be fought (but he knew that WWIV will be fought with bows and arrows implying that WWIII will lead to a nuclear holocaust). Albert, WWIII will be fought with financial and commodities weapons, mate!

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